Rajeev Karandikar's talk on the science of opinion polls.

Oboy, here I am posting not one but two posts in the same day. Here is something interesting - so interesting that I am actually posting for the second time today - something for the election year:

I attended Dr Karandikar's talk at The Hindu centre, the day before yesterday...

He spoke on the science behind opinion polls and it was very interesting to know that statistics can be used so powerfully. With a sample of about 4000 from each region you go on to predict the outcome at the national level... fine..

I did raise a question though - whether the model throws up variations in the regions. For example if Tamil Nadu is a region, the historical behaviour of voters in Kanyakumari has differed from that of South Chennai voters (keeping fingers crossed) - He replied that they were only looking at the final outcome at the national level and not so much at regional variations - that would require (micro statistics is what he said) a much more complex and costly survey involving more time etc...

But I am still left with the question... in a region with inherent patchiness, clumpiness call it what you may - small domains of peculiar but persitent convictions and bias - does it even make sense to take a random sample and ask them about national outcomes? I mean you go to region like south chennai and pick a sample that has been randomised not with respect to the biases in south chennai but with respect to general ideas of community etc, is it likely to yield correct results - you might pick a sample that is more characteristic of Tiruchi or Kanyakumari...

Is there any meaning in not doing a survey employing micro statistics (I assume that is like a micro canonical ensemble)... Dim memories of tackling Kerson Huang flash in the corner of my mind.

Thoughts on Women's day

Women's day or Mothers' day - I wonder when I see so many posts celebrating mothers and their motherhood - But surely we need to move further than that - further than the perception that motherhood is the supreme function of one born a female.

Yes I too was given birth to by a woman and she took the greatest of efforts to bring me up well and so on - But I feel designating a day for women has a different purpose - it is to look at all the hardships women endure to come out of these assigned roles.

Women enduring the worst inhuman acts when engaged with worlds in conflict - women facing scorn and marginalisation to express themselves in ways that are so easy for the average man - Women suffering pains of living two lives in one as they balance a career against their given duties?

Women seeking snatches of respite to pull on with their lives' burdens and not give in to the temptation to end it all - Women breaking down glass ceilings - Women laughing amidst their tears - women tearing away from the silken chains - Women escaping stifling norms?


Here is my little note seeking a "heartfelt" applause for all those women in the nooks and crannies - those at the forefront and those rendering their invisible support for progress!